Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry is Baltimore's RB1 and, at 32 in his 10th season, still a pure volume runner. Through 6 games in 2026 he has 130 carries, about 21.7 per game. That is his heaviest per-game workload of the last four seasons, up from roughly 18.1 in 2025 and 19.1 in 2024. The red-zone share is what stands out. His 30 RZ carries work out to 5.0 per game, compared with about 3.6 in 2025, 3.2 in 2024 and 2.1 in 2023. He has turned that into 7 rushing touchdowns plus a receiving score. The passing-game role remains minimal at 10 targets, 9 catches and 64 yards.

The efficiency has dropped. His 4.1 yards per carry is well off the 5.9 he posted in 2024 and the 5.2 in 2025, and it sits right next to the 4.2 from 2023. The extra carries have kept his yardage steady at about 89 rushing yards per game, near 2025's roughly 94 but short of the 113 he averaged in 2024. His 19.5 PPR points per game rank 15th. That beats his 2025 pace of about 16.4 and nearly matches his 2024 pace of about 19.8, but the path there is different. In 2024 the points came from explosive yardage. This year they come from carries and touchdowns.

That makes his fantasy value heavily touchdown-dependent. His 8 total touchdowns account for 48 of his 116.8 PPR points, roughly 41 percent. He scores at a rate of 1.33 per game, well above the roughly 0.94 he managed in each of the last two seasons. The Clutch Edge projection of 20.5 points per game, ranked 23rd overall, assumes the goal-line role holds. Because he barely catches passes, he has little floor in PPR formats if a game goes by without a score. In DFS his ceiling comes almost entirely from multi-touchdown games.

Several things would change the read. If his red-zone carries fall back toward his 2024 and 2025 per-game levels, his scoring rate would likely drop with them. With yards per carry already near his 2023 level, there is little efficiency cushion to make up the difference. If his yards per carry climbed back toward last year's 5.2 on this workload, his floor would rise considerably.

Written by a language model from the stat lines below. Numbers from Sleeper; the 2026 line is the season in progress.