Prediction markets · Scorecard

Track record

What the site said, and what happened. Flagged contracts graded against the venues’ own settlements, projections graded against contest results. Nothing here is a tip; it is the scorecard.

Contracts graded5520–35

Win rate36.4%price implied 31.0%

Units / $1+2.94

Projection MAE3.22contest · Oct 13

updated daily, 05:30 CTsources Kalshi · Polymarket · DK standings

Flagged contractseverything the Markets page called at least 2¢ under fair

	Contracts	W–L	Win rate	Price implied	Units / $1	ROI
All flagged	55	20–35	36.4%	31.0%	+2.94	17.2%

By fair-price basis

	Contracts	W–L	Win rate	Price implied	Units / $1	ROI
book line	54	19–35	35.2%	30.8%	+2.35	14.1%
sportsbooks	1	1–0	100.0%	41.0%	+0.59	143.9%

By weekkickoff week

	Contracts	W–L	Win rate	Price implied	Units / $1	ROI
2026-W42	55	20–35	36.4%	31.0%	+2.94	17.2%

Most recent graded contractslast price before kickoff

Contract	Venue	Fair	Paid	Edge	Result
DEN wins SEA@DEN · Oct 15	Polymarket	45.4%	41¢	+4.4¢	Won
Dalton Kincaid: under 25 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	23.4%	21¢	+2.3¢	Won
Keon Coleman: under 15 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	28.3%	20¢	+8.2¢	Won
Keon Coleman: under 25 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	37.3%	33¢	+4.8¢	Won
Keon Coleman: under 40 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	52.0%	50¢	+2.3¢	Won
Khalil Shakir: under 15 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	21.2%	15¢	+6.4¢	Lost
Khalil Shakir: under 25 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	29.7%	25¢	+4.4¢	Lost
Khalil Shakir: under 40 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	44.7%	43¢	+2.0¢	Lost
Davante Adams: under 25 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	20.4%	15¢	+5.6¢	Lost
Davante Adams: under 40 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	31.5%	29¢	+2.1¢	Lost
Puka Nacua: under 50 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	20.5%	18¢	+2.5¢	Lost
Puka Nacua: under 60 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	26.2%	23¢	+3.0¢	Lost
Tyler Higbee: under 15 receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	33.8%	32¢	+2.3¢	Lost
Tyler Higbee: 40+ receiving yards BUF@LAR · Oct 14	Kalshi	32.8%	30¢	+2.4¢	Won
Michael Wilson: under 40 receiving yards DET@ARI · Oct 13	Kalshi	22.8%	17¢	+5.9¢	Won
Michael Wilson: under 50 receiving yards DET@ARI · Oct 13	Kalshi	29.5%	25¢	+4.2¢	Won
Michael Wilson: under 60 receiving yards DET@ARI · Oct 13	Kalshi	37.0%	35¢	+2.5¢	Won
Michael Wilson: under 70 receiving yards DET@ARI · Oct 13	Kalshi	45.1%	43¢	+2.4¢	Won
Amon-Ra St. Brown: under 40 receiving yards DET@ARI · Oct 13	Kalshi	19.1%	16¢	+3.2¢	Lost
Amon-Ra St. Brown: under 50 receiving yards DET@ARI · Oct 13	Kalshi	24.5%	22¢	+2.3¢	Lost
Sam LaPorta: under 25 receiving yards DET@ARI · Oct 13	Kalshi	22.4%	20¢	+2.3¢	Lost
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: under 70 receiving yards SF@SEA · Oct 13	Kalshi	34.0%	30¢	+3.6¢	Lost
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: under 80 receiving yards SF@SEA · Oct 13	Kalshi	41.8%	40¢	+2.2¢	Lost
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: under 90 receiving yards SF@SEA · Oct 13	Kalshi	50.0%	48¢	+2.3¢	Lost
Mike Evans: under 25 receiving yards SF@SEA · Oct 13	Kalshi	27.0%	22¢	+4.8¢	Lost
Justin Herbert: under 150 passing yards DEN@LAC · Oct 13	Kalshi	25.8%	23¢	+2.6¢	Won
RJ Harvey: under 15 receiving yards DEN@LAC · Oct 13	Kalshi	32.4%	27¢	+5.1¢	Won
Tyson Bagent: 225+ passing yards CHI@GB · Oct 13	Kalshi	46.7%	43¢	+4.0¢	Lost
Joe Burrow: under 200 passing yards CIN@MIA · Oct 13	Kalshi	25.2%	23¢	+2.0¢	Won
Joe Burrow: under 250 passing yards CIN@MIA · Oct 13	Kalshi	49.5%	47¢	+2.8¢	Won
Deshaun Watson: 225+ passing yards CLE@NYJ · Oct 13	Kalshi	38.1%	36¢	+2.5¢	Lost
C.J. Stroud: 250+ passing yards HOU@TEN · Oct 13	Kalshi	47.7%	46¢	+2.0¢	Won
Cam Ward: 200+ passing yards HOU@TEN · Oct 13	Kalshi	46.0%	44¢	+2.3¢	Lost
Colston Loveland: 50+ receiving yards CHI@GB · Oct 13	Kalshi	38.2%	36¢	+2.6¢	Lost
Colston Loveland: 60+ receiving yards CHI@GB · Oct 13	Kalshi	26.4%	24¢	+2.2¢	Lost
Kalif Raymond: 40+ receiving yards CHI@GB · Oct 13	Kalshi	34.5%	33¢	+2.0¢	Lost
Rome Odunze: 50+ receiving yards CHI@GB · Oct 13	Kalshi	43.3%	40¢	+3.7¢	Lost
Rome Odunze: 60+ receiving yards CHI@GB · Oct 13	Kalshi	32.6%	30¢	+2.2¢	Lost
Kenyon Sadiq: 40+ receiving yards CLE@NYJ · Oct 13	Kalshi	39.5%	36¢	+3.9¢	Lost
Dalton Schultz: 40+ receiving yards HOU@TEN · Oct 13	Kalshi	48.7%	42¢	+7.0¢	Lost

A contract is counted once: the last price we saw before kickoff, only where the fair price came from an independent source (the sportsbooks' own moneyline, or a sportsbook line for the stat) and the contract was at least 2¢ under it. "Price implied" is what the average price paid says the win rate should be; a record is only an edge if the win rate beats it. Units are per $1 contract, before Polymarket fees and with Kalshi's fee estimated.

Projection accuracyprojections at lock vs what the players actually scored — every DK slate, from the box scores; contest rows also grade ownership

Slate	Players	Points MAE	Bias	Correlation	Ownership MAE
Contest standings Oct 13 · 18,945 entries	46	3.22	-0.90	0.90	7.35
Contest standings Oct 13 · 88,090 entries	49	3.02	-0.85	0.90	6.81
Mon-Thu (Mon 8:15 PM ET, 2 games) Oct 12	36	4.97	-1.64	0.83	—
Contest standings Oct 12 · 161,473 entries	372	3.90	-0.06	0.68	1.59
Primetime (Sun 8:20 PM ET, 2 games) Oct 11	33	5.48	-3.27	0.82	—
Afternoon Turbo (Sun 4:25 PM ET, 2 games) Oct 11	31	4.73	-0.36	0.81	—
Afternoon Only (Sun 4:05 PM ET, 3 games) Oct 11	47	4.84	0.40	0.74	—
Sun-Mon (Sun 1:00 PM ET, 13 games) Oct 11	219	5.26	-1.06	0.68	—
Early Only (Sun 1:00 PM ET, 8 games) Oct 11	139	5.33	-1.02	0.62	—
Main Slate (Sun 1:00 PM ET, 11 games) Oct 11	186	5.21	-0.67	0.65	—
Thu-Mon (Thu 8:15 PM ET, 15 games) Oct 8	246	5.75	-2.29	0.58	—
Mon-Thu (Mon 8:15 PM ET, 2 games) Oct 5	34	5.63	-3.06	0.51	—
Primetime (Sun 8:20 PM ET, 2 games) Oct 4	34	6.17	-4.85	0.72	—
Afternoon Turbo (Sun 4:25 PM ET, 3 games) Oct 4	50	5.00	-1.85	0.57	—
Afternoon Only (Sun 4:05 PM ET, 4 games) Oct 4	65	5.12	-1.42	0.55	—
Main Slate (Sun 1:00 PM ET, 12 games) Oct 4	206	5.27	-1.37	0.56	—

MAE = mean absolute error in fantasy points per player (QB/RB/WR/TE with a box-score line; inactives excluded). Bias above zero means the projections ran hot. Correlation is projection vs actual across the slate.

Simulator checkthe contest simulator’s field, rebuilt from each contest’s real ownership and real points, against the real standings

Contest	Entries	Cash line real / sim	Top 10% real / sim	Top 1% real / sim	Field settings
Oct 13	18,945	139.8 / 139.8	146.9 / 145.2	154.0 / 153.9	chalk^2.5 · spend 93%
Oct 13	88,090	138.7 / 138.4	146.4 / 145.5	154.0 / 153.6	chalk^2 · spend 95%
Oct 12 real from DK standings page	161,473	150.9 / 143.0	165.0 / 155.8	195.0 / 181.7	chalk^2 · spend 99%

The simulator builds a synthetic field from projected ownership. After every contest it is re-fitted so that a field built from the REAL ownership and scored with the REAL points lands on the real cash line and top finishes. Where the simulated column trails the real one (the very top of the field), the simulator still understates how good the best entries get.

Projection spread used by the simulator (fitted Oct 13 from 510 graded player-games): QB ±7.9 at a 15-point projection · RB ±8.4 at a 15-point projection · WR ±11.4 at a 15-point projection · TE ±12.2 at a 15-point projection. Actual points regress on our projections with slope QB 1.7, RB 1.1, WR 1.3, TE 1.2 — above 1 means our top projections run conservative.

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