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This week
Prediction-market contracts priced under an independent fair value, where Kalshi and Polymarket disagree, who the field will be on, and the model’s top plays. Updated through the week.
Priced under fair03¢+ vs independent fair
Venue gaps10same contract, 2¢+ apart
Games priced14
Next kickoff1d 11hSun 9:30 AM ET
Kalshi Oct 16 10:00 PM ETPolymarket Oct 16 10:00 PM ETSportsbooks Oct 16 11:30 AM ET
Priced under fairfair = the sportsbooks’ own moneyline with the margin removed, or a sportsbook line with a modelled spread
Nothing 3¢+ under fair right nowThat is normal for game winners; player props move most in the hours before kickoff.
Same contract, cheaper venueno model involved
| Contract | Game | Cheaper on | By |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 48.5 | CHI@ATL | Polymarket at 39¢ | 4¢ |
| GB by 3.5+ | DAL@GB | Polymarket at 38¢ | 4¢ |
| LV +4.5 | BUF@LV | Polymarket at 49¢ | 3¢ |
| JAX by 3.5+ | HOU@JAX | Polymarket at 42¢ | 3¢ |
| Under 40.5 | HOU@JAX | Polymarket at 44¢ | 3¢ |
| CHI wins | CHI@ATL | Polymarket at 51¢ | 3¢ |
| Under 53.5 | CHI@ATL | Polymarket at 54¢ | 3¢ |
| Under 50.5 | CHI@ATL | Polymarket at 44¢ | 3¢ |
| Under 49.5 | CHI@ATL | Polymarket at 41¢ | 3¢ |
| CLE +2.5 | BAL@CLE | Polymarket at 44¢ | 3¢ |
Projected ownership · Main Slate (Sun 1:00 PM ET, 10 games)share of DraftKings tournament lineups, from a model calibrated on real standings
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Proj | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | $8,100 | 22.4 | 55.0% |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | $6,800 | 19.3 | 37.7% |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | $7,000 | 18.7 | 28.6% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | $8,700 | 22.0 | 25.7% |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | $8,500 | 21.5 | 23.2% |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | $7,500 | 18.8 | 22.3% |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | $7,600 | 18.0 | 18.8% |
| Davante Adams | WR | LAR | $6,600 | 14.6 | 18.5% |
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | $7,400 | 17.6 | 18.2% |
| Panthers | DST | CAR | $2,500 | 7.8 | 16.9% |
| Raiders | DST | LV | $2,400 | 7.4 | 16.9% |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | $8,200 | 20.5 | 16.6% |
| Jets | DST | NYJ | $2,200 | 7.4 | 13.9% |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | $8,000 | 17.3 | 11.4% |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | $6,500 | 15.5 | 11.4% |
Chalk is not bad; chalk you share with a quarter of the field is.
Model’s top play by positionhighest projection at each slot
| Pos | Player | Salary | Proj | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen BUF | $7,500 | 21.1 | 10.0% |
| RB | Bijan Robinson ATL | $8,700 | 22.0 | 25.7% |
| WR | Puka Nacua LAR | $8,100 | 22.4 | 55.0% |
| TE | Brock Bowers LV | $7,500 | 18.8 | 22.3% |
| DST | Panthers CAR | $2,500 | 7.8 | 16.9% |
Prices include Kalshi’s estimated fee; Polymarket is before fees. How these calls have done: the track record.
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