Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is Kansas City's QB1, and his fantasy production is built mostly through the air. Through five games in 2026 he has completed 105 of 158 passes (66.5%) for 1,309 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That works out to 261.8 passing yards and 1.8 touchdown passes per game. He has added 17 carries for 57 yards and a rushing score. His 97.1 PPR points equal 19.4 per game, which ranks 39th in PPR scoring so far.

The way he's getting there has shifted. He is attempting just 31.6 passes per game, down from 35.9 in 2025, 36.3 in 2024 and 37.3 in 2023. He's making up for it with efficiency. His 8.3 yards per attempt is well above his marks of 7.2, 6.8 and 7.0 the previous three seasons, and his touchdown pace is ahead of the 1.57 to 1.69 per game he posted from 2023 to 2025. The rushing has gone the other way. Last season he ran for 30.1 yards per game with 5 rushing touchdowns in 14 games, and that floor helped push him to 21.2 points per game, his best of the four seasons shown. This year he's at 11.4 rushing yards per game. In 2023 and 2024 he finished around 18.4 points per game.

Clutch Edge projects him at 18.1 points per game, ranked 75th overall among QB, RB, WR and TE. That's below both his current pace and last season's rate, and in line with his 2023-2024 seasons. The projection is skeptical that a lower-volume passing game can keep producing yardage and touchdowns this efficiently. In season-long leagues he looks like a steady starter, not a difference-maker. For DFS, his ceiling this year has come from touchdown efficiency more than attempts or rushing, which makes him more volatile than his name suggests.

Two things would change the read. If his rushing returns toward last season's 4.6 carries and 30 yards per game, the floor that drove his 2025 scoring comes back, and the projection would look conservative. If his yards per attempt and touchdown rate drift back toward his 2023-2024 levels while attempts stay near 31 per game, he would likely settle in around the 18-point range the projection expects.

Written by a language model from the stat lines below. Numbers from Sleeper; the 2026 line is the season in progress.