Justin Jefferson

Jefferson sits atop the Vikings depth chart at left wideout, and his production comes almost entirely through the air. He has just one rushing attempt this season, for -11 yards, and has never logged more than two in a season in the data shown. Through four games in 2026 he has 19 catches on 24 targets for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is an efficient 79 percent catch rate with 13.6 yards per reception, and he has drawn 4 red-zone targets, one per game.

On a per-game basis, 2026 looks like a rebound from 2025 but not a return to his peak. He is scoring 15.9 PPR points per game, up from 11.9 last season but below 18.7 in 2024 and 20.2 in 2023. Yardage tells the same story: 64.5 per game now, against 61.6 in 2025, 90.2 in 2024 and 107.4 in 2023. Air yards have recovered to 46.5 per game from 35.1 last year, but they remain well short of the 61.5 and 81.4 he posted in the two seasons before that. The notable change is volume. He is seeing 6.0 targets per game, down from 8.3 in 2025, 9.1 in 2024 and 10.0 in 2023.

The fantasy read is that touchdowns are doing much of the work. His 3 scores account for 18 of his 63.7 points, which already exceeds the 2 touchdowns he caught across 17 games last season. Strip those out and he is producing about 11.4 points per game, essentially his 2025 level. Clutch Edge projects him for 14.7 points per game, which builds in some touchdown regression from his current pace. In DFS, his floor depends on whether catches and yards hold up on six targets a week, and he needs scoring plays to reach a ceiling.

Two things would change the outlook. If his targets climb back toward the eight-to-nine range of the past two full seasons, the efficiency he has shown would push him past his projection without relying on touchdowns. If the volume stays near six and the scoring rate cools toward last year's, his output likely drifts back toward his 2025 numbers.

Written by a language model from the stat lines below. Numbers from Sleeper; the 2026 line is the season in progress.