Nico Collins

Collins is Houston's No. 1 left-side receiver, and his production comes almost entirely through the air: 30 targets against just 2 rushing attempts through four games. He's drawing 7.5 targets per game and catching 22 of them for 323 yards, a 14.7 yards-per-reception clip that fits his profile as a vertical, chunk-play receiver. He's also getting looks near the goal line, with 4 red-zone targets, or one per game.

Per game, 2026 looks like a return to his 2023 and 2024 level after a softer 2025. He's scoring 18.4 PPR points per game, up from 15.1 last season and in line with 17.4 in 2023 and 17.6 in 2024. His 80.8 receiving yards per game sits between the 74.5 of 2025 and the 86.5 of 2023. The volume is steady rather than rising: 7.5 targets per game compares with 8.0, 8.3 and 7.3 in the prior three years. The efficiency is what improved. His 73% catch rate matches 2023 and beats last year's 59%, and his 243 air yards on 30 targets works out to about 8.1 per target, deeper than the roughly 6.5 to 6.9 he averaged in each of the last three seasons.

The fantasy question is touchdowns. His 3 scores in four games, 0.75 per game, are above his 0.40 to 0.58 range from 2023 through 2025, and they account for 18 of his 73.5 points. Without them, his production comes to about 13.9 points per game, close to his 12.7 to 14.2 range in prior seasons. That means his weekly floor is the same as before, and the scoring rate is the part most likely to cool. Clutch Edge projects him for 18.6 points per game, which assumes he keeps roughly this pace, and ranks him 59th overall among QB/RB/WR/TE.

For lineups, Collins is a volume-plus-big-play receiver with a stable target share, a reasonable weekly start whose ceiling depends on a deep shot or a red-zone look landing. If his target rate climbs back toward the 8-plus per game of 2024 and 2025, he can sustain this level even if the touchdowns slow down. If the deeper target depth reverts and the scoring cools at the same time, expect something closer to his 2025 output of about 15 points per game.

Written by a language model from the stat lines below. Numbers from Sleeper; the 2026 line is the season in progress.