Zay Flowers

Flowers is listed as Baltimore's No. 1 slot receiver, and his production comes from volume and work after the catch rather than red-zone scoring. Through five games in 2026 he has 471 receiving yards on only 261 air yards, so a large share of his yardage is created with the ball in his hands. He adds a small rushing component, 3 carries for 34 yards this season, which is a bonus rather than a reliable source of points. Touchdowns have never driven his value. He has 2 so far and posted 5, 4 and 5 in his three prior seasons.

The per-game jump is real. He is averaging 8.4 targets, 6.4 catches and 94.2 yards, up from 6.9 targets, 5.1 catches and 71.2 yards in 2025, which was already his best season. His efficiency has held: 14.7 yards per reception against 14.1 last year, and he has caught 32 of 42 targets, about 76 percent. That works out to 18.9 PPR points per game, compared with 14.3 in 2025, 12.3 in 2024 and 12.9 as a rookie. He is also seeing more scoring-area looks, with 5 red-zone targets in five games after 10 across all of 2025.

For fantasy, the value comes from target share and yardage. Clutch Edge projects him for 16.7 points per game, below his current pace but well above any full season he has posted. That gap is essentially a bet that some of the target increase sticks and some fades back toward the roughly 7 per game he drew in each of his first three years. In PPR and full-point DFS formats his catch volume gives him a stable floor, and his after-the-catch yardage gives him a ceiling without needing a touchdown.

What would change the read is the volume. If his targets drift back toward his career norm of about 7 per game, his output likely settles back into the low-to-mid teens he produced in 2023 through 2025. If the red-zone usage keeps pace at about one target per game, his touchdown totals could finally climb past his previous high of 5, which is where his upside beyond the projection would come from.

Written by a language model from the stat lines below. Numbers from Sleeper; the 2026 line is the season in progress.